Creating Overrides
Before you can add any overrides, you must first run one or more pipelines and a champion pipeline must be selected. Any changes you make to the project settings can invalidate the selected champion pipeline. In this case, the pipelines must be run again and a new champion must be selected. When you are certain that the final champion pipeline is selected, you are ready to start working on applying overrides to the statistical forecasts from that pipeline. See Running the Forecast Pipeline for more information.
When you are specifying overrides, it is important to remember the following:
- You can enter overrides only for the time periods in the forecasta numerical prediction of a future value for a specified time period for each unique combination of BY variable values horizonthe number of intervals into the future, beyond a base date, for which analyses and predictions are made.. The forecast horizon is the period of time for which forecasts are computed. It starts after the end of the historical data and continues for the number of periods specified by the Number of forecast periods (horizon) option in the Project Settings window. The end date for the series is the largest time ID value with a nonmissing value for the dependent variable.
- You cannot add a negative override if negative forecasts are not allowed in the project. To allow negative forecasts, you must select the Allow negative values for forecasts and overrides check box in the Overrides pane of the Project Settings window. Changes to this setting require you to rerun the pipelines.
- If you create one or more overrides for one filtera set of specified criteria that are applied to data in order to identify the subset of data for a subsequent operation, such as continued processing. , you must submit those overrides before you can create overrides on another filter.
Follow these steps to add overrides:
- In SAS Visual Forecasting, select the Overrides tab for the project.
- Make your selections
from the Filters pane on the left. You can select from saved filters in the drop-down list or you can make new selections from the attributes listed below.
For example, you could select a single product name if you want to review the forecasts
and submit any overrides for that product. Or you might select several store locations
within a focused geographical location that often have similar results. See Creating Filters for more information
about saving filters.
If you do not select any filters, you create an override for all time seriesan aggregation of transactional data into specified time intervals and sorted according to unique combinations of the default attributes (BY variables) in the project.
- To add an override for any forecasted time series, right-click the Override row for that time series and select Override Calculator. For more
information about using this tool to create overrides, see Override Calculator. You also have the option of entering a specific value directly
in that table cell.
For each override, you can specify whether the override is locked or unlocked. This locking affects how SAS Visual Forecasting disaggregates subsequent overrides for filters that include the locked time series.For more information, see Lock and Unlock Overrides.
- If you are creating an override for an unnamed filter, select the Filter tab and enter a name for the filter.
- When you have finished specifying overrides for a filter, click
and select Submit all.
When you submit a pending override, SAS Visual Forecasting disaggregates the override value to the lower level time series, taking into account any other overrides or constraints that have been previously imposed. If no conflicts are found, the override’s status is applied and the final forecast shows the override value. If conflicts are found, you must resolve them as described in Working with Override Conflicts.