PHSELECT Procedure
Predicted Values and Regression Diagnostics
For the ith observation, let represent the failure time, the event indicator, and the vector of covariate values, respectively. Let
be the vector of regression coefficients. For
, let
Let be the estimator of
, and let
be the observed information matrix.
Predicted Values
Let be a vector of covariates. The linear predictor and its standard error estimate are, respectively,
The predicted cumulative hazard at a time point t is
and the predicted survival probability is
Residuals
The martingale residual for the ith observation is
The deviance residual is a transform of the martingale residual,
The square root shrinks large negative martingale residuals, and the logarithmic transformation expands martingale residuals that are close to unity.
The Schoenfeld (1982) residual vector is calculated per event time. If the ith observation is uncensored, the Schoenfeld residual vector is
Otherwise, the elements of the Schoenfeld residual vector are set to missing values. Under the proportional hazards assumption, the Schoenfeld residuals have the sample path of a random walk; therefore, they are useful in assessing time trend or lack of proportionality. Harrell (1986) proposed a z-transform of the Pearson correlation between these residuals and the rank order of the failure time as a test statistic for nonproportional hazards.
The score residual vector for the ith observation is
The score residuals are a decomposition of the first partial derivative of the log likelihood. They are useful in assessing the influence of each observation on individual parameter estimates. Therneau, Grambsch, and Fleming (1990) have considered a Kolmogorov-type test based on the cumulative sum of the residuals for detecting nonproportional hazards.
Other Regression Diagnostics
The vector of weighted Schoenfeld residuals, ,
is computed as
where is the total number of events and
is the vector of Schoenfeld residuals for the i observation. The weighted Schoenfeld residuals are useful in assessing the proportional hazards assumption. The idea is that most of the common alternatives to the proportional hazards can be cast in terms of a time-varying coefficient model,
where and
are hazard rates. Let
and
be the jth component of
and
, respectively. Grambsch and Therneau (1994) suggest using a smoothed plot of (
) versus
to discover the functional form of the time-varying coefficient
. A zero slope indicates that the coefficient does not vary with time.
The DFBETA diagnostics approximate the changes in the parameter estimates, , when the ith observation is left out. The jth component of
can be used to assess any unusual effect of the ith observation on
. The exact computation of
involves refitting the model each time a subject is omitted. Cain and Lange (1984) derived the following approximation of
as weighted score residuals,
where is the score residual vector of the ith observation.
The LD statistic
approximates the likelihood displacement, which is the amount by which minus twice the log likelihood (), under a fitted model, changes when each observation in turn is left out. When the ith subject is omitted, the likelihood displacement is
where is the vector of parameter estimates that you obtain by fitting the model without the ith observation. Instead of refitting the model without the ith observation, Pettitt and Bin Daud (1989) propose that the likelihood displacement for the ith observation be approximated by