Evaluation Step

After the forecasts are made, the in-sample statistics of fit are computed based on the one-step-ahead forecasts and the actual data. These statistics can be used to identify poorly fitting models prior to making business decisions based on these forecasts.

In addition to the statistics of fit, distribution, white noise, and correlation analysis of the prediction errors can help evaluate the adequacy of the forecasting model.

Last updated: March 16, 2026