MODEL Procedure

Tests on Parameters

In general, the hypothesis tested can be written as

upper H 0 colon bold h left-parenthesis theta right-parenthesis equals 0

where bold h left-parenthesis theta right-parenthesis is a vector-valued function of the parameters theta given by the r expressions specified in the TEST statement.

Let ModifyingAbove bold upper V With caret be the estimate of the covariance matrix of ModifyingAbove theta With caret. Let ModifyingAbove theta With caret be the unconstrained estimate of theta and theta overTilde be the constrained estimate of theta such that h left-parenthesis theta overTilde right-parenthesis equals 0. Let

bold upper A left-parenthesis theta right-parenthesis equals partial-differential h left-parenthesis theta right-parenthesis slash partial-differential theta vertical-bar Subscript ModifyingAbove theta With caret Baseline

Let r be the dimension of h left-parenthesis theta right-parenthesis and n be the number of observations. Using this notation, the test statistics for the three kinds of tests are computed as follows.

The Wald test statistic is defined as

upper W equals h Superscript prime Baseline left-parenthesis ModifyingAbove theta With caret right-parenthesis mathematical flattened left-parenthesis bold upper A left-parenthesis ModifyingAbove theta With caret right-parenthesis ModifyingAbove bold upper V With caret bold upper A Superscript prime Baseline left-parenthesis ModifyingAbove theta With caret right-parenthesis mathematical flattened right-parenthesis Superscript negative 1 Baseline h left-parenthesis ModifyingAbove theta With caret right-parenthesis

The Wald test is not invariant to reparameterization of the model (Gregory and Veall 1985; Gallant 1987, p. 219). For more information about the theoretical properties of the Wald test, see Phillips and Park (1988).

The Lagrange multiplier test statistic is

upper R equals lamda Superscript prime Baseline bold upper A left-parenthesis theta overTilde right-parenthesis bold upper V overTilde bold upper A Superscript prime Baseline left-parenthesis theta overTilde right-parenthesis lamda

where lamda is the vector of Lagrange multipliers from the computation of the restricted estimate theta overTilde.

The Lagrange multiplier test statistic is equivalent to Rao’s efficient score test statistic,

upper R equals left-parenthesis partial-differential upper L left-parenthesis theta overTilde right-parenthesis slash partial-differential theta right-parenthesis Superscript prime Baseline bold upper V overTilde left-parenthesis partial-differential upper L left-parenthesis theta overTilde right-parenthesis slash partial-differential theta right-parenthesis

where upper L is the log-likelihood function for the estimation method used. For SUR, 3SLS, GMM, and iterated versions of these methods, the likelihood function is computed as

upper L equals normal upper O normal b normal j normal e normal c normal t normal i normal v normal e times upper N o b s slash 2

For OLS and 2SLS, the Lagrange multiplier test statistic is computed as

upper R equals left-bracket left-parenthesis partial-differential ModifyingAbove upper S With caret left-parenthesis theta overTilde right-parenthesis slash partial-differential theta right-parenthesis Superscript prime Baseline bold upper V overTilde left-parenthesis partial-differential ModifyingAbove upper S With caret left-parenthesis theta overTilde right-parenthesis slash partial-differential theta right-parenthesis right-bracket slash ModifyingAbove upper S With caret left-parenthesis theta overTilde right-parenthesis

where ModifyingAbove upper S With caret left-parenthesis theta overTilde right-parenthesis is the corresponding objective function value at the constrained estimate.

The likelihood ratio test statistic is

upper T equals 2 left-parenthesis upper L left-parenthesis ModifyingAbove theta With caret right-parenthesis minus upper L left-parenthesis theta overTilde right-parenthesis right-parenthesis

where theta overTilde represents the constrained estimate of theta and upper L is the concentrated log-likelihood value.

For OLS and 2SLS, the likelihood ratio test statistic is computed as

upper T equals left-parenthesis n minus n p a r m s right-parenthesis times left-parenthesis ModifyingAbove upper S With caret left-parenthesis theta overTilde right-parenthesis minus ModifyingAbove upper S With caret left-parenthesis ModifyingAbove theta With caret right-parenthesis right-parenthesis slash ModifyingAbove upper S With caret left-parenthesis ModifyingAbove theta With caret right-parenthesis

This test statistic is an approximation from

upper T equals n times l o g left-parenthesis 1 plus StartFraction r upper F Over n minus n p a r m s EndFraction right-parenthesis

when the value of r upper F slash left-parenthesis n minus n p a r m s right-parenthesis is small (Greene 2004, p. 421).

The likelihood ratio test is not appropriate for models with nonstationary serially correlated errors (Gallant 1987, p. 139). The likelihood ratio test should not be used for dynamic systems, for systems with lagged dependent variables, or with the FIML estimation method unless certain conditions are met (see Gallant 1987, p. 479).

For each kind of test, under the null hypothesis the test statistic is asymptotically distributed as a chi squared random variable with r degrees of freedom, where r is the number of expressions in the TEST statement. The p-values reported for the tests are computed from the chi squared left-parenthesis r right-parenthesis distribution and are only asymptotically valid. When both RESTRICT and TEST statements are used in a PROC MODEL step, test statistics are computed by taking into account the constraints imposed by the RESTRICT statement.

Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the asymptotic distribution of the Wald test is a poorer approximation to its small sample distribution than the other two tests. However, the Wald test has the least computational cost, since it does not require computation of the constrained estimate theta overTilde.

The following is an example of using the TEST statement to perform a likelihood ratio test for a compound hypothesis:

test a*exp(-k) = 1-k, d = 0 ,/ lr;

It is important to keep in mind that although individual t tests for each parameter are printed by default into the parameter estimates table, they are only asymptotically valid for nonlinear models. You should be cautious in drawing any inferences from these t tests for small samples.

Last updated: June 19, 2025